Risk Research

Communication builds relationships with distinct groups of people who may be affected by nuclear technology operations. Risk managers may consider the interests and concerns of these groups. They evaluate the potential for schedule delays, legal action or financial losses. Citizens and local leaders conduct their own forms of risk identification related to nuclear projects. Everyone seeks to anticipate the types of problems that may arise, the range of consequences and steps that could mitigate those impacts.

Listening carefully to understand the expectations of stakeholders helps communicators meet key expectations and reduce the potential for conflict. Communicating risk requires understanding the threats from different points of view.

The IAEA Technical Document IAEA-TECDOC-1209, Risk Management explains the two primary aspects of risk as “the potential for things to change, and the magnitude of the consequences if they do change.” Because the disciplines of economics, engineering and safety analysis (among others) each define risk differently, communicators face challenges in helping stakeholders understand how the priority, frequency and impact of risks are evaluated.

In the last 20 years, psychologists, such as Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman, have laid the foundation for new fields of research. They have contributed great insights into how people behave when faced with uncertainty and risk. These researchers have identified a wide range of ways that humans often miscalculate risk. Risk perception can be affected by illogical shortcuts. These shortcuts, also known as cognitive biases, allow people to make faster decisions. Examples include:

Overestimating a specific risk based on assumptions or experience. People tend to assign greater severity to a more specific risk. For example, while statistics show more injuries and deaths from highway accidents, individuals report a greater fear of flying in airplanes. The idea of “hindsight bias” suggests that people learn very specific lessons from past events and apply those lessons to make the future predictable.

Selecting facts that confirm an existing belief or opinion. Equipped with limited time and knowledge, many people choose to consider or integrate the most convenient information they find. This allows them evidence to confirm previously held beliefs or to maintain ideas that conform to one’s established identity.

Favouring what is familiar over what is accurate. Another way people make decisions and judge uncertainty is to anchor to information that is familiar and adjust new information until a plausible estimate is reached.