The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has revised up its annual projections for the expansion of nuclear power for a fourth successive year. World nuclear capacity is now projected to increase by 2.5 times the current capacity by 2050, in the IAEA’s high case scenario, including a significant contribution from small modular reactors (SMRs).
The increased projections published in Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, released today, aligns with the global consensus on the need to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai last year, nuclear power was included for the first time in the Global Stocktake, which called for accelerating the deployment of low emission technologies including nuclear energy to help achieve deep and rapid decarbonization.
“Following the success of COP28 in Dubai and the first ever Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels, the global momentum behind nuclear energy continues at pace. The new IAEA projections reflect increasing acknowledgement of nuclear power as a clean and secure energy supply, as well as increasing interest in SMRs to target both electric and non-electric applications to meet climate goals and foster sustainable development,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi. He announced the new projections in his opening statement at the 68th IAEA General Conference in Vienna.
At the end of 2023, 413 nuclear power reactors were operational, with a global capacity of 371.5 GW(e). In the high case scenario of the new IAEA outlook, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 950 gigawatts by 2050. In this case, global capacity in 2050 would be slightly more than 2.5 times what it was in 2023. In the low case projection, capacity rises 40 per cent to 514 gigawatts. Small modular reactors, or SMRs, account for about one quarter of the capacity added in the high case and for 6 per cent in the low case scenario.
All operating reactors, potential lifetime extensions, possible power uprates, planned shutdowns and expected construction projects in the next few decades were considered in the estimates. Around 30 newcomer countries are either considering or moving forward with plans to introduce nuclear power into their energy mix, while other countries are expanding and extending the lifetimes of existing nuclear power plants. One of the most cost-effective sources of low emission electricity is the lifetime extension of existing nuclear reactors, the publication states. In the high case scenario, it is assumed that the operating lifetimes of most nuclear power reactors scheduled for retirement will be extended.
Enabling factors
At the Nuclear Energy Summit organized by the IAEA and Belgium earlier this year, representatives identified increased access to financing, more favourable energy market frameworks, workforce development and more proactive support to newcomer countries as key to nuclear power’s long term success.
Along the same lines, the new publication states that achieving the high case scenario for nuclear capacity will depend on enabling factors: national policies, supporting investment, demonstration projects for new reactors, investment in grids, supply chain management, work force development, and regulatory collaboration and global harmonization – particularly for SMRs.
Next month, the IAEA will host the International Conference on SMRs and their Applications, 21 to 25 October, bringing together national authorities, vendors, end-users, the supply chain and international organizations committed to accelerating the safe and secure deployment of SMRs.
Background
The 44th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 provides detailed global trends in nuclear power by region. The report’s low and high estimates reflect different, but not extreme, underlying assumptions for the worldwide deployment of nuclear power. In 2021, the IAEA revised up its projections for the first time since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident in Japan.
Since it was first published over 40 years ago, the IAEA’s projections have been continually refined to reflect an evolving global energy context. Over the past decade, nuclear power development has remained within the range of projections described in prior editions.